Ed Miliband's EU "Fudge" Could Trap Cameron

The morning after the day Ed Miliband finally announced his policy on EU referendum and the reaction has been mixed, but predictable.

That is probably the best he could have expected, but surprisingly, it might also be seen as a small victory.

The media reaction ranged from claims he had indulged in a classic fudge (Daily Telegraph), through suggestions that voters believe it was a cowardly rather than bold move (The Sun), to general support (The FT and Guardian), and other variations on the theme.

Brother David welcomed it as a "sensible compromise" while Labour MP Graham Stringer characterised it as a "shoddy compromise". The overall political and business reaction was almost exactly as expected.

In other words, nobody's mind has been changed. But at least they now know where Labour stands.

The YouGov poll for the Sun was clear, showing 50% of voters did not agree with the policy, 32% agreeing with it and 43% saying he should have matched David Cameron's promise to hold a referendum regardless of future events.

But having a policy that does not command overwhelming support does not necessarily condemn a party to electoral disaster, unless that policy is massively important to voters on election day.

Traditionally, Europe has never been in those top election issues, falling well behind things like the economy, jobs and the health service.

And Tory Lord Ashcroft spotted the trap Miliband might have set for Cameron with his referendum "fudge".

Writing on the influential ConservativeHome website, he said: "Used intelligently, the Conservatives' distinctive policy can win it votes. The party can now say quite unambiguously to Eurosceptic voters that only a Tory government will guarantee the in-out referendum they want."

But, he added: "By putting the referendum pledge at the front and centre of its 2015 campaign the Conservative Party would not only be missing the chance to talk about the things most voters care about more, like the economy, jobs and public services. It would also, as far as these voters are concerned, be proving again the out-of-touchness (outness of touch?) of which it has for so long been accused."

And there is the catch for Cameron. Now that Miliband has announced his policy, for good or ill, Labour will do its utmost to stop talking about Europe.

Cameron, on the other hand, runs the risk of giving in to temptation and leaping on what he views as a Labour weak point, and keep talking about Europe.

So the question will then be whether or not the electorate will want the election campaign to be dominated by Europe or might decide that, even if they don't approve of Labour's stand, there are other bigger things to worry about.