Elon Musk Says Robotaxis Could Make Tesla A $5 Trillion Company—But This One Thing Could Push It To $25 Trillion By 2040

At the 8th Future Investment Initiative, Tesla CEO Elon Musk projected a groundbreaking future for his company, estimating that Tesla's anticipated robotaxi business could elevate its valuation to $5 trillion. However, Musk believes that Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot could push the company's value even further, potentially reaching an astonishing $25 trillion by 2040.

Tesla's $25 Trillion Vision: The Optimus Humanoid Robot

Speaking via video, Musk outlined his vision of a world populated by 10 billion Optimus robots, each priced around $20,000 to $25,000. According to Musk, these robots could revolutionise industries and boost Tesla's worth significantly. Currently in development, Optimus has already demonstrated some of its capabilities, performing tasks such as handing out gifts, playing games, and even dancing at Tesla events. These demonstrations hint at the potential impact of Optimus on Tesla's future, according to Business Insider.

During Tesla's "We, Robot" event on October 10, Musk predicted that Optimus would eventually be sold for between $20,000 and $30,000 per unit once production is scaled. "Robotaxis make Tesla about a $5 trillion company," Musk said. "The Optimus Robot, I think, makes Tesla a $25 trillion company," reiterating his belief that the robotics division could ultimately outpace Tesla's electric vehicle (EV) business in value.

The Humanoid Robot Debut and Development Challenges

Optimus, Tesla's humanoid robot project, has faced a blend of excitement and scepticism since its debut in 2021, which featured an actor in a bodysuit dancing on stage. Despite this shaky start, Tesla has worked to refine Optimus's capabilities, demonstrating its utility at the recent Future Investment Initiative. According to Tesla, robots displayed their versatility by distributing gifts and drinks, engaging with attendees, and even dancing to a remix of "What is Love" — showcasing both functionality and entertainment potential, per reports from The New York Post.

Musk's ambitious vision for Optimus is accompanied by ongoing technological challenges. Tesla admitted that the showcased robots were heavily reliant on remote control to ensure optimal performance. Tesla's Optimus lead, Milan Kovac, revealed that around 20 robots are currently operational, although one of them suffered a fall during the event. Tesla later released a short video of an Optimus unit demonstrating its abilities, such as handling batteries, carrying loads, and even climbing stairs.

Currently, two Optimus robots are being tested within Tesla's factories, though specific details about their roles have not been disclosed. Limited production is expected to begin next year, with Musk estimating that "a few thousand" robots could be operational by 2025. Full-scale production is anticipated by 2026, and Musk believes Optimus will ultimately become Tesla's most significant product, driving the company's valuation to his forecasted $25 trillion.

Competition in the Field of Humanoid Robotics

Tesla isn't alone in pursuing humanoid robotics. Companies such as Figure AI, Apptronik, Toyota Research Institute, and Boston Dynamics are also making strides in developing similar technologies, highlighting an increasingly competitive market. However, Musk's lofty ambitions for Optimus, particularly the goal of mass production, set Tesla apart as it aims to bring affordable humanoid robots into the mainstream.

Musk's Broader Vision and Social Concerns

At the Future Investment Initiative, Musk shared perspectives on a range of issues, including concerns over declining global birth rates. Musk has previously argued that birth rates are dropping too fast, urging individuals, particularly Americans, to consider having at least three children. He expressed this view during a pro-Trump rally in Pennsylvania, sparking debate about its feasibility in today's economic climate, given the financial challenges many families face. Musk's remarks have fuelled discussions about the intersections of technology, economics, and social policy.

In addition to population issues, Musk raised concerns about artificial intelligence (AI) development, asserting that some AI is being trained to adopt what he described as a "woke, nihilistic philosophy" that values political correctness over truth-seeking. Musk emphasised the need for "maximally truth-seeking AI" as AI's influence on society continues to expand.

The Road Ahead for Tesla and Robotics

While Musk's vision for Optimus is undeniably ambitious, only time will tell if Tesla can achieve the milestones necessary to reach a $25 trillion valuation. According to IBTimes UK, the Optimus project has both captivated and divided public opinion, with some applauding Musk's pioneering outlook on robotics while others remain sceptical about the feasibility of his projections.

Regardless of its reception, the Optimus robot represents a significant step forward in the field of robotics. If Tesla succeeds in delivering on Musk's vision, the implications for automation, the economy, and everyday life could be transformative, potentially making Optimus Tesla's defining achievement.