European Crisis: G20 Pushes Europe on Reform as Spain Preps Bailout Request [VIDEO]
1530 BST: But what kind of chewing gum do they recommend?
The latest Reuters poll of European economists casts a slightly more optimistic view of Greece's future in the Eurozone, with only three of the 19 surveyed saying they expect the debt-stricken nation to leave the single currency this year. Last week, about a third of those ask thought we'd see a 2012 "Grexit".
Interestingly, only 5 of the 19 thought Spain would require a full sovereign bailout before the end of the year, despite the record-high borrowing costs and the capital needs of its banks and semi-autonomous regions. The same question last week drew a near 50/50 split.
The group sees Greek GDP falling 5.8 percent this year and 1.3 percent the next, extending the recession to nearly a decade. In Spain, the tally is for contractions of 1.5 percent this year and 0.7 percent next year.
1455 BST: It's official
Antonis Samaras has been sworn in as Greece's new Prime Minister. We wish him luc
1425 BST: Tale of the tape?
A social media post indicating some technical issues in the 3-month performance of the FTSE 100 has caught my attention, and got me thinking about specific equity market performance this month - and for the soon-to-end second quarter.
To date, Greece's Athens Stock Exchange General Index has had the biggest monthly advance (20.1 percent) but has still lost nearly a fifth (17.4 percent) of its value since the first of April.
Spain's IBEX is up 10.9 percent on the month, but that masks a 15.8 decline for the second quarter. Italy's FTSE MIB has a similar quarterly decline (14.6 percent) but is up 7.1 percent for the month of June.
Of the three major indices (FTSE 100, DAX and CAC-40) Britain has the best June performance (+6.8 percent) and is only down 2.8 percent for the quarter (compared to -8.2 percent for the DAX and -9.2 percent for the CAC-40).
On the broader Europe-wide measure, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 is up 5.8 percent on the month, but down 5.5 percent on the quarter-to-date.
1410 BST: Merkel confirms key meeting with Greece's leaders
... the German Chancellor will attend Friday's Quarterfinal clash with Greece in Gdansk at this summer's European Football Championships. Team spokesperson Harald Stenger said Wednesday that the team calls Merkel its "Lucky Charm".
1340 BST: Still waiting
The newsflow has largely trickeld to a halt was we await the Fed statement and press conference at 1915 BST. We are seeing reports that New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras will be sworn in as the new Prime Minister of Greece later today, but they are as yet unconfirmed.
Stocks are marginally higher with no real direction (FTSE 100 up 0.5 precent, FTSE Eurofirst 300 up 0.2 percent).
1135 BST: No rescue
The EU Commission communications office is busy doing damage control on market speculation of an EFSF move into the bond markets. Part of yesterday's G20 statement from European leaders was a promise lower borrowing costs around the single currency area - and many media outlets assumed this would be done via the existing structure of the temporary bailout fund. No, says the EU. There were no discussions about this and there are no plans to do it.
Commence the unwinding of short covering in Spanish and Italian debt. I'll update on prices in a few moments.
1035 BST: Schatz tap
Germany sells another €4bn from its zero-coupon schatz at an average yield of 0.1 percent (priced at 99.805 - so kind of like a 24-month Treasury bill). Bid demand was modest (€1.9 bid for every €1 on offer) and the total size was pulled back from a planned €5bn.
0940 BST: Buried jobs news
The market's focal-point for the 0930 release was, of course, the Bank of England minutes. However, the Office for National Statistics also published May employment data that showed a small rise in the number of jobless claims (+8,100) and a total unemployment level of 1.599m
0930 BST: BoE minutes - King outvoted
Sterling falls and Gilts are on the rise after the Bank of England minutes of its June policy meeting showed a 5-4 split on expanding the current £325bn asset purchase programme. The votes included the votes of Mervyn King, who sought a £50bn increase (along with David Miles and Adam Posen). Paul Fisher voted for a £25bn increase.The Monetary Policy Committee voted 9-0, as expected, to keep its key lending rate unchanged at 0.50 percent.
The Euro is trading higher at 81 pence against the Pound; Gilt futures are up 42 ticks to 119.49.
0910 BST: New government in Greece?
I'm seeing reliable, Athens-based reports from social media that say New Democracy has cut a final deal with PASOK and the Democratic Left that would create a coalition government with a strong mandate (170 plus seats in the 300 seat parliament) but a tough, tough task. Nevertheless, we can expect these new leaders to be sworn-in Thursday. It's understood that New Democracy will take the lion's share of cabinet positions, followed by token appointments for PASOK. The Democratic Left will not participate it the cabinet but will sit with the government.
0830 BST: Quiet start
Very little volume in equities this morning as the mixed-bag of performance continues across the major indices. The broad FTSE Eurofirst 300 is little changed from its 11 May high of 1,010 while Britain's FTSE 100 has given back no more than a couple of points and is now marked at 5,583.34.
We are, however, seeing relatively firm pricing on both the Euro and Sterling against the US dollar (1.2683 and 1.5729). At this point, it's hard to pick out a broader theme (and you might assume Sterling weakness if we get a QE hint from the BoE in the next hour or so) but I'll keep looking.
0805 BST: Mixed open
European stocks have opened with a cautious tone: Britain's FTSE 100 dipping around 0.1 percent in the opening minutes of trading while markets in Spain (+0.1 percent) Italy (0.1 percent) and France (0.2 percent) post modest gains. Germany's DAX is little changed.
We're also seeing very interesting moves in the bond market ahead of a €5bn auction of the 2-year German schatz later this morning: 10-year bund yields have backed up to 1.55 percent while Spanish yields have surged, taking the yield firmly under 7 percent (6.90 percent mid-market) for the first time in several days. Italy's 10-year bonds are priced to yield 5.8 percent. Benchmark 10-year Gilts are trading at 1.75 percent ahead of the BoE Minutes publication at 0930 BST.
0750 BST: Good Morning!
It's been hard for markets to hold onto any optimism overnight as Asia stocks faded gains into the European open ahead of a key policy meeting of the US Federal Reserve later today. The broad MSCI Asia Pacific Index, having risen more than a full percent to a one-month high, gave back most of its gains to trade little changed on the day at 115.76. Financial bookmakers are calling for modest declines in the three major indices at the opening bell today, but it's anyone's guess as to where prices will go before the end of the session. To wit, we saw Bund futures tick higher in the first moments of bond market trading, only to test yesterday's trough of 141.19 shortly after.
In effect, the "central bank support" theme will likely drive momentum - and we'll get a clearer indication of that, at least from a UK perspective, at 0930 BST when the Bank of England publishes minutes from its last policy meeting. Investors will want clues as to whether Governor Mervyn King is prepared to re-start his £325bn asset purchase programme now that inflation is firmly trending below 3 percent in the moribund British economy.
The final words from this year's G20 Summit in Los Cabos certainly won't entice investors into the riskier waters of the financial markets, as the strongest pledge from European leaders on the current crisis - a closer integration of the region's banking sector including common deposit insurance - will take years, if at all, to achieve.
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