Russia's Struggle With Ukraine to Hit Growth in Central Asia

Russia's economic slowdown will hit growth in central Asian countries for the next two years, the International Monetary Fund has said.

Economic growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia region (CCA,) which includes a number of former Soviet states as well as Iran and China, will slide to around 5.5% in 2014-15. That level of growth would represent a decrease of 0.75% on the fund's most recent estimate from May.

As well as suffering from the impact of Russia's slowdown, the regions oil exporters will likely lose out on revenues amid falling oil prices, the IMF said.

"A further deepening of geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine could have a significant impact on the CCA region, over both the near and medium term," the IMF said in its updated regional outlook.

"If tensions increase, this would worsen the outlook for Russia and for the region," said Juha Kahkonen, the IMF's deputy director in its Middle East and Central Asia Department.

Russia's economy has slumped since it annexed the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea from Ukraine in March, prompting a raft of economic sanctions from Western powers. Accusing Russia of fuelling the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine, the United States and the European Union passed a raft of sanctions targeting individuals, companies and even entire sectors of Russia's economy.

Moreover, the sharp drop in the price of oil, which has fallen more than 25% since June, has reduced Moscow's incoming revenues.

Other regional oil exporters like Kazakhstan will also take a hit from the slump in oil prices.

"Overall, Kazakhstan has done quite well over the years - it has used its oil wealth to rise to middle-income status and is an emerging market country," Kahkonen told Reuters news agency.

"For the medium term, Kazakhstan, like other countries of the region, faces the challenge of raising its (economic) productivity," he said. "To succeed and to rise to be among the leading emerging market countries, Kazakhstan needs not only stronger fiscal and monetary frameworks but continued structural reforms.

Kazakhstan's gross domestic product is expected to rise 4.6% in 2014, accelerating to 4.7% next year, although this growth rate is slower than the 6% achieved in 2013.