From Sushi Rolls to Empty Bowls: How A Surge In Tourists Contributed to Japan's Biggest Rice Shortage in Two Decades

Japan, known for its rich culinary traditions and reliance on rice as a staple food, is facing its worst rice shortage in over two decades. The issue has been exacerbated by a dramatic surge in international tourists post-pandemic, climate factors and longstanding agricultural challenges.

Record-Breaking Tourism and Its Impact on Rice Demand

In 2024, Japan has seen an unprecedented influx of tourists, with over 17.8 million visitors in the first half of the year alone, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. This influx has put additional strain on the country's dwindling rice supplies. By July, 3.3 million tourists arrived, setting a new monthly record, further exacerbating the problem. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida acknowledged this growth, noting tourism as a "pillar of Japan's growth strategy" while recognising the challenges over-tourism poses.

While tourism is a significant contributor to Japan's economy, it has also dramatically increased the demand for food, particularly sushi and other rice-based dishes, which are staples for locals and visitors. The visitor surge has increased rice consumption in restaurants and sushi bars nationwide. According to Rabobank, tourists' rice consumption more than doubled between 2022 and 2024, rising from 19,000 to 51,000 tons. Although tourist consumption is still relatively small compared to Japan's domestic consumption of 7 million tons annually, it has nonetheless played a crucial role in the rice shortage.

Weather and Agricultural Decline

Tourism alone isn't to blame. Japan's rice shortage is deeply intertwined with various climate and agricultural factors. The 2023 rice harvest was severely impacted by record-high temperatures and water shortages, leading to poor crop yields. Hiroshi Itakura from Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MFAA) explained that last year's extreme weather patterns, including heatwaves and droughts, significantly reduced the quality and quantity of rice.

The situation is further complicated by Japan's ageing population of rice farmers. As many of them retire, fewer young people enter the profession, leading to a decline in rice production. This has created a perfect storm: a dwindling supply of rice, exacerbated by environmental factors and rising demand from both locals and tourists.

Despite an average harvest this year, the MFAA noted that only 60% of the rice received the highest quality rating, down from 76% in 2022. This drop in quality, coupled with lower yields, has driven up rice prices and contributed to the overall shortage.

Rising Rice Prices and Consumer Reactions

The shortage has led to rising rice prices across the country, affecting local consumers and businesses that rely heavily on the staple crop. In August, rice prices reached 16,133 yen (approximately $112) per 60 kg, a 5% increase from the start of the year. Supermarkets began limiting the number of rice bags each customer could purchase, with many shelves left empty as supply struggled to keep up with demand. Stores like Fresco in Tokyo reported that they were selling out of rice by midday, with customers queuing before opening hours to secure their share.

The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries confirmed that private rice inventories stood at 1.56 million tons in June 2024, the lowest level since 1999. Despite these low reserves, officials believe the current stock will be sufficient to meet demand, at least for now.

Japan's Protectionist Rice Policies and Isolationism

One major factor contributing to the rice shortage is Japan's isolationist rice policy. The country imposes a 778% tariff on imported rice to protect its domestic farmers, ensuring that nearly all rice consumed in Japan is homegrown. While Japan is obligated to import 682,000 tons of rice annually under its World Trade Organization commitments, this rice is typically used for purposes other than direct consumption, such as processing or animal feed.

Although rice exports from Japan have increased sixfold since 2014, these exports remain relatively small in the global market, further limiting the domestic supply.

A Call for Sustainable Solutions

The ongoing rice shortage has led to a national conversation about the future of Japan's agriculture and food security. As tourism continues to grow and the effects of climate change become more apparent, Japan must find sustainable solutions to meet the rising demand for its most beloved staple. Prime Minister Kishida has emphasised the need for responsible tourism and regional revitalisation, ensuring that tourism benefits not just the economy but also the people and resources of Japan.

The government is developing long-term strategies to bolster domestic agriculture and prevent future shortages. However, with increasing pressures from tourism and climate change, the path forward will require careful planning and international cooperation.