Technical analysis: Gold downside risks increase with dollar index at 12-year high

The support for gold near $1,200 has kept the uptrend since November safe, but the big picture is still showing dominant downward bias with a target of $1,100, supported by the USD index at a new 12-year high.

For the short-term uptrend since late last year to continue, a break above the $1,240-1,250 zone, which is endorsed by the 50-period moving average on the weekly chart, is necessary.

The next level will be $1,307, the January peak, a break of which can challenge the downward channel since mid-2013, aiming levels above $1,400 and eventually $1,500.

However, as long as the yellow metal holds below the $1,250 mark, risks are mostly southward. The first target will be $1,179, which was more or less held since mid-2013, barring a brief break in November last year.

The yellow metal has fallen 5.5% in February, reversing much of the 8.4% gain in the previous month. On the monthly chart, the commodity has held below the 50-period moving average, indicating the strength of the medium term downtrend.

The 2014 low of $1,131 has become the next level to watch ahead of $1,100 and levels below.

Fundamentally, the continued dollar rally is weighing on the yellow metal. Boosted by the unexpected upward revision of the US Q4 GDP figures and US PMI manufacturing at a four-month high, the greenback has rallied to a new 12-year high of 95.51.