Is Tories' 6 point ICM poll lead over Labour an aberration?
David Cameron's chances of holding onto the reins of power after the general election have received a boost after a new poll revealed that support for the Tories surged by six points over the last month.
A study from ICM for The Guardian found that the Conservatives were four points ahead of Labour (36% vs 32%), with 80 days to go before the general election.
The research also revealed that the Liberal Democrats were on 10%, Ukip down to 9% and the Greens on 7%.
The data means that the Tories are well ahead of their share of the vote in the 2010 general election when they polled 32%. The significant bump in Tory support was even more surprising given last week was generally considered to have been damaging for David Cameron, with the tax avoidance by the super-rich and the HSBC Swiss leaks thought to have played to Labour's advantage.
But the ICM poll tells a very different story to other recent opinion polls and may be an expectation.
A poll from YouGov for The Sunday Times put Labour three points ahead of the Tories (35% vs 32%) and the latest Populus poll put Ed Miliband's party two points ahead of the Conservatives (33% vs 31%).
On the weekend, a study from ComRes for ITV, which questioned more than 1,000 voters across 40 seats, found 40% of respondents would vote for Labour, 31% for the Tories, 15% for Ukip, 8% for the Liberal Democrats and 5% for the Greens.
Indeed, with hours of the publishing of the ICM poll, Lord Ashcroft Polls revealed that Tory support had slumped by 4% and Labour was in the lead with 21% for the first time in 2015, according to his polling data.
Meanwhile, Miliband attempted to win the British business community over with a call for "more inclusive prosperity" in a major announcement in the West Midlands.
The Labour leader, in a speech at Jaguar Land Rover in Wolverhampton, unveiled his "modern industrial strategy" for the UK.
"We need a plan which nurtures the talents of every young person, supports every business, allows every family to share prosperity, and expects each and every one of us to contribute," he said.
"Here is our better plan: a modern industrial strategy for Britain's businesses and Britain's working families to succeed together; a plan for every sector, every firm, everybody to raise productivity, make bigger profits and create the inclusive prosperity for a new era; a route-map for turning the fortunes of working people and of our country around."
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