Venezuela's Election: Can Maduro Defy The Odds?

In this year of elections, Indonesia, India, and the UK amongst others, have already gone to the polls, with each election producing different geopolitical ramifications. Yet nothing compares to the election season of the Western hemisphere, particularly the ones happening in the US and Venezuela.

Venezuela will go to the polls on July 28, with the US to follow in November. If President Nicolás Maduro secures victory, this will no doubt be reflected in US politics. Like Maduro, Joe Biden is a candidate of the left facing down a conservative opponent from a wealthy business background. The ire directed by former President Donald Trump's Republican party at Biden is matched only by its dislike of the socialist Maduro administration.

The Trump wing of American politics may therefore be disappointed to learn that, according to international observers in Venezuela, President Maduro looks politically secured. He has quipped that a diet of green smoothies and daily rallies has helped him lose weight and, perhaps more pertinently, his movement's slick TikTok campaign targeted at millions of younger Venezuelans is generating real momentum.

Western Influence

Venezuela, having suffered draconian Western sanctions in some form or another since 2017, and is still economically insecure. Elected in 2016, Donald Trump followed a 'maximum pressure' approach to Venezuela, banning oil imports to the US in 2019 – a move that the then US National Security Adviser John Bolton described as going 'for the win'.

The ban, viewed by career diplomats as a needless and extreme escalation, has brought no victory. As Venezuelan government revenues fell, the country became unable to import food and medical supplies. A humanitarian crisis ensued, while the West was cut off from one of its most reliable and prodigious energy suppliers.

The Venezuelan electorate understands that the country's economic immiseration resulted largely from external forces. Maduro's popularity ticked back up as he pivoted the state-owned oil and gas industries temporarily away from Western markets towards new and willing buyers, not least the members of the BRICS alliance, a force for geopolitical non-alignment. Inflation has ticked down as the bolivar, Venezuela's currency, has strengthened. The partial dollarisation of the domestic economy has also helped to restore both business and consumer confidence.

With new revenues came popular policy: Venezuela's socialist government has lifted millions out of poverty this century and even now, as much as 75% of government spending is directed at social welfare.

Five million houses have been built under the Maduro government; public sector salaries have been boosted as part of the government's thankless task of keeping up with galloping inflation; free healthcare and generous food subsidies for the poor have also been entrenched to help ease widespread suffering during the Trump era.

Brighter Outlook

Like its economy, Venezuela's geopolitical outlook is much brighter. The Maduro and Biden administrations signed an agreement in October of last year to unwind US sanctions in return for Maduro holding elections in July of this year.

The deal eventually foundered on the rocks of American politics, but reports this week confirmed that the two sides are now back in talks. A successful election, that Maduro looks set to win, would put the two nations on a path to mutually beneficial economic cooperation, under which the US would have access to Venezuela's oil reserves – the largest in the world – and the South American nation would become re-embedded in international financial markets.

As for the election, there's no doubt that a state of distrust exists between Maduro and his political opponents. International observers are intent that the vote must be peaceful and that whoever loses must accept the result. At least Venezuela's electronic voting system brings confidence that voter fraud can be prevented. It was also recently confirmed that the Carter Center, a progressive NGO, and a panel of experts from the United Nations (UN) will observe the election. Their work to prevent electoral impropriety should be welcomed by all sides.

If Maduro can ride the wave of deeply entrenched support for Venezuela's socialist project, then his political in-tray will certainly remain full in the election's aftermath. The importance of economic diversification, doubling down on climate resilience and, most importantly, building on newly improved bilateral ties with the United States are all 'must-dos' as Venezuela seeks to chart a course from its visible economic recovery to long-standing economic stability.

US policymakers predicting a Maduro win, whether Democrat or Republican, should also be making plans to play a constructive role in securing a working partnership with the energy superpower on their doorstep.