Adobe Expects Online Holiday Sales To Hit $221 Billion This Holiday Season

Based on their analytical data, multinational software giant, Adobe, has released its annual forecast for the holiday shopping season, specifically from November 1st to December 31st.

This data provides the most comprehensive view into American e-commerce by analysing commerce transactions online, covering over one trillion visits to US retail sites, 100 million stock-keeping units and 18 product categories.

Despite an unpredictable and challenging economic environment, Adobe expects record discounts and flexible payments will drive an approximate five per cent growth year-over-year in eCommerce.

The company's 'Buy Now, Pay Later' (BNPL) service alone is expected to drive a record $17 billion in revenue, marking a significant increase of 16.9 per cent in year-over-year.

In fact, BNPL has already seen strong traction this year. Thus far in 2023, BNPL users have spent $46.7 billion, which is approximately $6 million more than what was spent during the same period last year.

BNPL growth has been primarily driven by various categories including groceries, where its own share of spending grew by a staggering 37.5 per cent.

One survey conducted by Adobe, which involved over 1,000 American consumers, found that one in five respondents planned to use BNPL when purchasing their gifts during this upcoming holiday season.

Adobe believes that BNPL spending will hit up to $9.3 billion in November, making it the largest month on record.

Alongside the annual forecast of the holiday season, mobile shopping is set to overtake desktop sales for the very first time, signifying the belief that consumers are getting increasingly more comfortable with transacting on smaller screens.

Additionally, discounts are expected to hit record highs this season, peaking at around 35 per cent off the listed price for toys, 30 per cent for electronics and 25 per cent for apparel products.

Cyber Week, the shopping period including Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday, is also expected to drive over $37 billion in online spending.

Adobe expects that Cyber Monday will remain the year's biggest and most profitable shopping day, with a record $12 billion in spending.

Whilst Cyber Week is expected to have the best deals, consumers will see bargains as early as the second week of October, where discounts are expected to be as high as 18 per cent.

Deals are also expected to persist with tempting discounts as high as 20 per cent in the days leading up to Cyber Week, which also offers some flexibility to consumers looking to manage their budgets in new ways throughout this year.

Cyber Monday is set to be BNPL's largest and most successful day with a total of $782 million in spending, which significantly surpasses Cyber Monday 2022's daily record of $658 million.

Driven by deep discounts, these colossal shopping days remain to be the primary anchor points for Adobe this season.

Patrick Brown, vice president of Adobe growth marketing, said: "Despite an unpredictable economic environment, where consumers face several challenges including rising interest rates, we expect strong e-commerce growth this season."

"Buy Now, Pay Later in particular has become increasingly mainstream and will make it easier for shoppers to hit the buy button, especially on mobile devices where over half of online spending will take place," Mr Brown continued.