More QE from the Bank of England? What Analysts Say

More quantitative easing looks inevitable, after minutes from the Bank of England's May monetary policy committee meeting show that that there was just one vote difference between members deciding on whether to fire up the money printers again.

Those wanting to hold the £325bn target for its asset purchase facility numbered five, defeating the four who wanted to extend it in June - including the Bank's governor Sir Mervyn King.

Since the minutes were released, the consensus from analysts and economists is that more monetary stimulus is on its way.

A Reuters poll of analysts showed that 80 percent now expect an extension of the Bank's quantitative easing programme.

Here's what some had to say.

RBS research note:

In response to this we bring forward our forecast for £50bn of QE from August to July.

The shift is clearly being driven by the deterioration in financial market conditions.

It is also clear from the Minutes that some of the five members voting for no change believe that further QE is likely to be required soon.

Overall, more QE is coming in July (£50bn) - with further increases beyond that a clear possibility.

Societe Generale Corporate & Investment Banking research note:

It now seems highly likely that the asset purchase target will be increased by £50bn at the next (July) meeting.

The tone of the discussion makes it clear that more QE is imminent.

The tone is reminiscent of the discussion in the September 2011 minutes which showed the Committee worried about the deepening euro crisis but wanting to see how it panned out before deciding to increase monetary stimulus, probably the following month.

Scott Corfe, senior economist at the Centre for Economics and Business Research:

With the government committed to fiscal austerity, the onus continues to lie with the Bank of England to support growth and jobs through loose monetary policy.

Minutes from the Monetary Policy Committee's June meeting showed four out of nine members - including Bank Governor Mervyn King - voting to expand the programme of quantitative easing in light of the dismal economic situation.

So more money printing later this year is almost certain.

KPMG Chief Economist, Andrew Smith:

There is now nothing standing in the way of a resumption of QE at the MPC's next meeting in July.

Inflation continues its downward trend and is on track to return to target in the next 12 months, the domestic economy is struggling and Europe, our main export market is paralysed by political and financial uncertainty.

With most of the committee agreed that further economic stimulus would be warranted at some point it is difficult to see what reason there could be for further delay.

Richard Driver, analyst for Caxton FX:

These MPC minutes are a bit of a surprise, four votes in favour of QE is a major dovish shift within the Bank of England.

Posen was almost nailed-on to join Miles in the dovish camp but the downward revision to Q1 GDP to -0.2% and further deterioration to the UK manufacturing sector has clearly spooked Paul Fisher and Mervyn King.

Whilst the no-QE camp have retained a slight majority, the language of the minutes clearly point to more QE in the near future.

With eurozone risks intensifying, inflation having unexpectedly eased and the MPC clearly very concerned with the UK's ability to bounce back out of this double-dip recession, we are now fully expecting the pro-QE camp to have gained a majority by July's meeting.

The Bank of England is clearly looking to take a very active stance in protecting the UK economy now, which tells you all you need to know about the direction it sees the debt crisis heading in.