Brexit outcome studies to be released by government, pending Commons vote

Downing Street says the Government will release the impact studies that found the UK would be worse off in any post-Brexit scenario, if a vote in the House of Commons directs it to do so.

There has been mounting pressure on the government to release the analyses, which were leaked to Buzzfeed News at the beginning of the week.

Sky News reports that Number 10 has opened the door for the studies being made public if MPs vote in favour of such a motion.

Labour's Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer has already demanded that the government share its preliminary findings about the likely economic impacts of potential future UK-EU models.

"We've asked the government to publish them, they've said no so we've got no alternative now but to use an ancient procedure to force them to publish the impact statements and make them available to Parliament so we can do our jobs," he told ITV news.

Westminster went into a spin on Monday when Buzzfeed revealed details from the document "EU Exit Analysis – Cross Whitehall Briefing", dated January 2018, which analysed the potential consequences of the three most plausible Brexit scenarios.

It reported that the softest Brexit option – continued membership of the European Economic Area (EEA) – would lead to reduced growth of 2% in the long-term compared with staying in the EU.

At the other end of the scale, it found that a "no deal" scenario could lead to an 8% reduction of growth over the same period.

Meanwhile, a comprehensive free trade agreement between the EU and a UK not in the EEA would scupper growth by 5% compared with current forecasts.

Cabinet members have sought to play down the findings with one pro-Brexit minister stating that "these sorts of analysis have been proved to be wrong".

Other Brexiteers have dismissed the findings as nothing more than a Whitehall stitch-up, engineered by a Civil Service that is intent on keeping Britain either inside the EU or as close to the bloc as possible.

On 31 January, Labour are hoping to use an ancient parliamentary procedure – a so-called "humble address" – to appeal to the Queen for access to the information. Pro-remain Tories including the veteran Ken Clarke have backed the move.

The Conservative's lost majority at the 2017 General Election continues to prove a thorn in the side of Theresa May, who had hoped to use the plebiscite to strengthen her negotiating power with Brussels.

Instead, she has been left vulnerable to the warring hard- and soft-Brexit camps within her own party.