Commodities round-up: Oil slumps further as Morgan Stanley says market won't rebalance until H2 2017

Oil futures hit fresh three-month lows on Thursday (28 July) over continuing oversupply concerns, while precious metals spiked on a weaker dollar and renewed safe-haven calls by investors.

At 2.25pm BST on Thursday, the Brent front month futures contract was down 0.58% or 25 cents to $43.22 per barrel, while the West Texas Intermediate was 0.17% or seven cents lower at $41.85 per barrel, as oversupply sentiment clobbered the market.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley reckon headwinds are growing for the oil market with oversupply being the order of the day as production disruptions get resolved. In a note to clients on 24 July, the analysts also revised down their oil demand expectations.

"We are cutting our forecast for global refinery demand for crude oil (runs) to 625,000 barrels per day from 800,000 bpd on expected run cuts, with downside risk to these low numbers.

"We also recently lowered our third quarter average Brent price forecast from $50 per barrel to $45, and see more downside risk."

Meanwhile, gold futures spiked after the US Federal Reserve held back on raising the country's interest rates in line with market expectations. With the dollar weakening against the yen and the euro, at 2.38pm Comex gold futures for December delivery were trading 1.10% or $14.70 higher at $1,349.20 an ounce.

FXTM research analyst Lukman Otunuga said: "Gold surged ferociously with prices hitting $1342 during trading on Wednesday following the Fed's decision to keeping rates unchanged which offered a foundation for bulls to install a round of buying.

"With optimism still visible over the Fed taking action in 2016, the main driver behind Gold's resurgence could be risk aversion. It should be kept in mind that anxiety is mounting ahead of the B of Japan policy meeting while the visible fears over the global economy have attracted investors to safe-haven investments."

Elsewhere, Comex silver rose 1.90% or 38 cents to $20.38 an ounce, while spot platinum was 0.43% or $4.90 higher at $1,141.40 an ounce.