COP28 Agreement Faces Credibility Test Amidst Fossil Fuel Expansion Concerns

The Cop28 agreement, celebrated as a landmark deal at last year's climate talks in Dubai, is facing a credibility crisis.

The transition away from fossil fuels, a pivotal component of the agreement, hinges on major historical polluters, including the US, UK and Canada, reconsidering their plans for expanding oil and gas production.

Pedro Pedroso, the outgoing president of the G77 plus China bloc, which represents 135 developing countries, issued a warning that the ambitious goals of Cop28 could be at risk of failure.

"We achieved some important outcomes at Cop28 but the challenge now is how we translate the deal into meaningful action for the people," Pedroso said.

"As we speak, unless we lie to ourselves, none of the major developed countries, who are the most important historical emitters, have policies that are moving away from fossil fuels, on the contrary, they are expanding," said Pedroso.

Pedroso accentuated that while some significant outcomes were achieved at Cop28, the real challenge lies in translating the agreement into meaningful action for people globally. He pointed out a stark reality: major developed countries, responsible for significant historical emissions, lack policies that move away from fossil fuels.

On the contrary, these nations are actively expanding their fossil fuel production. The United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and Norway alone account for 51 per cent of the total planned oil and gas expansion by 2050, as reported by Oil Change International.

"It's very easy to label some emerging economies, especially the Gulf states, as climate villains, but this is very unfair by countries with historic responsibilities ..... Just look at US fossil fuel plans and the UK's new drilling licenses for the North Sea and Canada which has never met any of its emission reduction goals, not once," Pedroso, a Cuban diplomat explained.

The call for action extends beyond reducing fossil fuel production; developed countries are also expected to provide adequate financial assistance for poorer nations to transition and adapt to the impacts of the climate crisis. Pedroso underscored the importance of holding these nations accountable for their commitments and ensuring the means of implementation are delivered.

During Cop28, scrutiny fell on Sultan Al Jaber, the president of Cop28 and chief of the Emirates national oil company, given the UAE's position as the world's seventh-largest oil producer. However, the spotlight is equally on the United States, which claimed the title of the world's biggest oil and gas producer last year, setting a record during the hottest year ever recorded.

Pedroso criticised the tendency to label emerging economies, particularly Gulf states, as climate villains, stressing upon the need to address the historical responsibilities of major developed countries.

The G77 plus China group, the largest bloc in UN climate talks, represents a diverse coalition including populous countries like India and China, major emerging economies, significant fossil fuel producers, and climate-vulnerable nations.

The common but differentiated responsibility (CBDR) principle, outlined in the Paris Accords, asserts that developed countries must take the lead in transitioning away from fossil fuels, providing financial assistance, and implementing fair and effective climate policies.

The Paris Agreement, established in 2015, mandates countries to create and implement nationally determined contributions (NDCs) covering mitigation, adaptation, and the means of implementation. However, the progress has been slow, and developing countries face a substantial financial shortfall, hindering their ability to address the escalating climate crisis.

As Pedroso highlighted, the G77 presidency rotates annually and the upcoming presidency will be handed over to Uganda. However, he raised concerns about countries like Uganda, Chad and Somalia, which have recently discovered oil.

These nations are being told to increase their NDC ambitions without being provided with viable economic alternatives for poverty eradication and development. Pedroso highlighted that addressing climate change requires a comprehensive understanding of the global context and recognition of the varying responsibilities of nations.

He said: "How can you tell countries like Uganda, Chad and Somalia, which have recently discovered oil, that they cannot touch this resource and must increase their NDC ambitions – without providing any reasonable economic alternatives for poverty eradication and development? We cannot address climate change in a vacuum.

"Climate change is a global phenomenon, and yes we all have to contribute to keep global temperature at 1.5°C, but the scale to which we are responsible must be taken into account and reflected through the means of implementation ... But there has been a systematic attempt to water down and take away from the CBDR and instead focus on 'we've all got to do our part."

In the broader context of UN climate talks, financial considerations play a pivotal role. The establishment of the loss and damage fund at Cop28 was deemed historic, with immediate pledges from some countries.

However, Pedroso expressed scepticism about the sufficiency of these pledges to meet the needs of climate-vulnerable developing countries. He underscored the importance of credible pledges translating into real financing for the fund.

Looking ahead, Cop29 is set to take place in Azerbaijan, a major oil and gas producer, followed by Cop30 in Brazil in 2025. These host choices raise questions about the commitment of oil and gas-producing countries to multilateral efforts.

The next two years are crucial, requiring countries to establish a new climate finance goal at Cop29, reflecting the scale and urgency of the climate challenge.

Additionally, nations must present new NDCs that cover all greenhouse gases and align with the goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

"The fact that Azerbaijan, Brazil and the UAE – where oil and gas is very important – are willing to host Cop, shows a commitment and willingness by those countries to do something multilaterally, at least they are not running away," said Pedroso.

The G77 president accentuated that 2024 and 2025 will be critical years for implementation, particularly in the delivery of finance, which has been lacking. Many countries have legally binding commitments to act against climate change, and the missing link is the means of implementation.

As Pedroso concludes his term and returns to the foreign ministry in Havana, he joins a growing chorus of voices urging the UNFCCC to investigate the climate impact of Israel's war in Gaza.