FX Focus: Markets lack drivers as investors await Fed minutes

The dollar was broadly unchanged on Wednesday (24 May), as investors awaited the release of the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting, which could offer further indication over the timing of the next interest rates hike.

The minutes are scheduled for publication at 7.30pm BST and are largely expected to show the US central bank will lift interest rates again next month. Ahead of the release, the dollar was flat against the yen and against its Canadian and Australian counterparts.

However, the greenback slid slightly against the euro, falling 0.18% to 0.8929 euro cents.

"In the last week or so market odds of a June rate rise have fluctuated quite sharply, though the consensus still remains that it remains more or less a done deal," said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets.

"I still have doubts about that but the Fed do appear to have boxed themselves into a corner for a move in June, and one that they may find difficult to extricate themselves from if things do go a bit pear shaped in the next few weeks."

Lukman Otunuga, research analyst at FXTM, added the prospect of a third interest rate increase in 2017 could come under threat, on the back of economic data in the US becoming increasingly mixed and the jitters related to Donald Trump's presidency.

"A sense of uncertainty over Trump's ability to implement the proposed fiscal policies has left investors on edge with questions being raised over the potential impact on the Federal Reserve," he said.

"While most expect the pending minutes to reinforce expectations of a June rate hike, investors will be searching for further clues on when, or if, a third rate hike is still on the table."

On the British side of the Atlantic, meanwhile, the pound was also broadly unchanged, trading at $1.2966 and €1.1579. With the general election campaign momentarily suspended as a sign of respect for the atrocities that shook Manchester on Monday evening and a lack of economic data, there was little to spring sterling into action.

"The events have left the currency subdued following its fall earlier in the week when compared to its movements in the past month," said Paresh Davdra of Rational FX.

"With the election campaign suspended, investors will be looking for different drivers for the currency."

The euro followed the trend of its main rivals, although investors would closely monitor a speech by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi this afternoon, which could address comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel about the euro being too weak.