FX Focus: Pound takes Article 50 in its stride and holds steady

The pound held steady on Thursday (30 March), gaining ground after enduring a rollercoaster session in the previous 24 hours as Theresa May triggered Article 50, to formally begin Britain's exit from the European Union.

By early afternoon, sterling was 0.26% and 0.54% higher against the dollar and the euro respectively, trading at $1.2464 and €1.1607.

The pound seems to have taken the trigger of Article 50 in its stride, and economists suggested growing political turmoil in Europe ahead of the upcoming French election could boost the UK currency.

"Losing 20% in the wake of the referendum vote, the weaker sterling has provided the UK with a strong exports boost, " said Yann Quelenn, market analyst at Swissquote.

"Strengthening of the pound is now very likely especially as Europe faces a veritable minefield with the upcoming French and German elections."

However, while the formal beginning of Brexit has not yet shaken the currency markets, the road ahead could be altogether more difficult to negotiate, as Britain begins what will be a complex two years of negotiations.

Having fallen as low as $1.2378 early on Wednesday, the pound then surged to a daily high of $1.2469 shortly after the Prime Minister confirmed Britain would leave the 28-country union, before retreating again soon after.

Lukman Otunuga, research analyst at FXTM, warned that traders could have to get used to this kind of volatility. "Sterling could be in store for a very rocky rollercoaster ride moving forward as the Brexit talks officially get under way," he said.

"With the remaining 27 EU member states meeting at the end of April to agree on the guidelines for the Brexit settlement, and formal negotiations potentially starting as late as June, sterling sensitivity may intensify as investors become jittery."

Elsewhere, the euro shed 0.22% against the dollar after news that Germany's inflation rate recorded a sharp slowdown in March. The German Consumer Price index rose 1.6% year-on-year, down from the four-year high of 2.2% recorded in February, and lower than the 1.8% figure expected.

Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, the dollar recorded marginal gains, after official data showed the US economy grew slightly more than expected in the fourth quarter, expanding 2.1% year-on-year, compared with an initial estimate of 1.9%.

Following the report, the greenback rose 0.31% and 0.11% against the yen and the Swiss franc respectively, trading at ¥111.38 and CHF0.9976 respectively, but was largely flat against its Canadian and Australian counterparts.