Gamers Claim 'Call of Duty: Black Ops II' Predicted US-China Trade War Over Rare Earth Metals

A decade-old video game is now going viral for seemingly predicting the future. As tensions escalate between the United States and China over rare earth mineral exports, social media users have pointed to uncanny similarities between real-life events and the storyline of Call of Duty: Black Ops II.

The popular 2012 game, set partly in the year 2025, features a chilling scenario where China cuts off rare earth exports to the West—triggering global chaos. Fast forward to today, and that fictional crisis appears to be unfolding in reality.

On 4 April 2025, China imposed new restrictions on seven types of rare earth elements, banning their export to the US in direct retaliation to sweeping tariffs introduced under Donald Trump's trade policies. The ban has already disrupted international shipments and raised fears of a potential global shortage—just as the game once imagined.

What Is Black Ops II All About?

Released in 2012, Call of Duty: Black Ops II was a ground-breaking entry in the franchise, notable for its dual timeline narrative set in the 1980s and 2025. The game's main antagonist, Raul Menendez, builds a terrorist organisation called Cordis Die, bent on igniting a new global conflict.

The futuristic plotline focuses on Menendez manipulating tensions between the US and China, fuelled in part by a Chinese embargo on rare earth minerals—essential components for advanced electronics and military technology. These materials are used in everything from smartphones and electric vehicles to missiles and fighter jets.

According to the game's storyline, the rare earth crisis triggers a cyberwar between the two superpowers, showcasing how strategic resources could tip the scales of geopolitical power. In a prescient twist, the game even names 2025 as the flashpoint year for the conflict.

Gamers React to Life Imitating Art

With China's recent export ban making headlines, gamers have taken to social media to draw eerie comparisons between the game and current events.

'Black Ops 2 is about to happen in real life 😭💔,' one user posted on X, while another wrote, 'THE YEAR IS 2025 AND WE'RE LITERALLY LIVING THROUGH THE BLACK OPS 2 CAMPAIGN!'

Many online pointed to the game's creative team, which included former US lieutenant colonel Oliver North and futurist Peter Singer, as part of the reason why the scenario feels so grounded in reality. Their input helped shape a plot that was described by NBC News back in 2012 as 'scaringly accurate'.

At the time of its release, NBC wrote: 'The best-selling video game could help shape the real-world thinking of the U.S. military through its science fiction story of a Cold War playing out between the U.S. and China in 2025.'

CNN also interviewed Peter Singer that year, who warned that tensions over rare earth minerals could indeed spark a future cold war. 'The two superpowers are competing over a valuable new resource – the rare earth elements used in the construction of nearly all smartphones, tablets and other electronic gadgets,' CNN reported.

What Are Rare Earth Minerals and Why Do They Matter?

Rare earth elements are a group of 17 metals critical to the production of high-tech equipment and military hardware. Although not actually rare in geological terms, these elements are difficult to mine and refine economically. China currently dominates this global supply chain, accounting for more than 80% of world production.

On 4 April 2025, Beijing formally added seven rare earth elements to a restricted list. Exporters now require special licences from the Ministry of Commerce—a process that could take weeks or months, disrupting global supply chains.

Already, Chinese suppliers have declared force majeure on several contracts, with goods delayed at ports and shipments halted. Industries expected to feel the pinch include automotive manufacturing, clean energy, semiconductors, and defence.

How the West Is Responding

In response, the US and its allies are working to fast-track alternative supply chains. The US Department of Defense has invested in domestic rare earth production, notably at the Mountain Pass mine in California, operated by MP Materials.

Meanwhile, Australian firm Lynas Rare Earths has ramped up operations to help fill the supply gap, and Canada, India, and the EU have also signalled intentions to explore rare earth development on their own soil.

These efforts, however, will take time to come online. In the short term, the global market remains vulnerable to bottlenecks—and, as the game predicted, resource-driven conflict.

A Chilling Mirror Between Fiction and Reality

The parallels between Black Ops II and current events have renewed interest in the game's storyline. What once seemed like a far-fetched dystopian plot now reads more like a warning label.

With global powers locked in a high-stakes struggle over critical resources, the rare earth embargo highlights just how much geopolitical leverage China holds. It also underlines the fragility of supply chains built on single points of dependency.

As the world scrambles to reduce its reliance on Chinese rare earths, it is increasingly clear that access to these materials is not just an economic concern—but a national security issue. And if history does indeed repeat itself, Black Ops II may prove more than just entertainment; it might have offered a glimpse into our geopolitical future.