The Jacob Rees-Mogg effect: Eccentric Tory backbencher breaks marginal seat mould

Tory backbencher Jacob Rees-Mogg is not just surviving in his North East Somerset marginal seat, the latest data from Lord Ashcroft showed that the eccentric backbencher is thriving.

Ashcroft surveyed voters in 10 Labour/Tory crunch constituencies and revealed that in nine of the seats there has been a swing away from the Tories to Labour since 2010.

The exception was Rees-Mogg's constituency, where there has been a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Conservatives since the last election.

Although Ashcroft did not name any of the wannabe MPs in his survey, he did ask respondents to "think specifically...about the candidates who are likely to stand". Rees-Mogg's personal popularity, therefore, must be taken into account. He currently holds a 16 point lead (44% vs 28%) over Labour.

Once dubbed the "Honourable Member for the early 20th Century" by Daily Mail sketch writer Quentin Letts, the Old Etonian has become a popular fixture on current affairs TV after he entered parliament in 2010 with a majority of 4,914.

The well-spoken Oxford graduate has faced mockery and parody on social media sites like Twitter. But the Ashcroft figures showed the Eurosceptic is breaking the mould in the Tory/Labour marginals with just weeks to go before the 7 May.

The research also revealed that Labour hopeful Will Straw, son of former Foreign Secretary Jack Straw, is tied with Tory Jake Berry in Rossendale and Darwen.

The figures found that both of the hopefuls were on 42% but there had been a 5% swing away from the Tories to Labour since 2010, when Berry won the seat.

Overall, the Ashcroft polling is positive for Labour with three Labour gains from the Tories and two tied places.

"As ever, it is important to remember that these are snapshots, not predictions," Ashcroft said.

In all ten seats, majorities were optimistic about the economy, both for the country as a whole and for themselves and their families."

The latest national poll from YouGov put Labour one point ahead of the Tories (33% vs 34%), with Ukip on 13%, the Liberal Democrats on 8% and the Greens on 6%.