John Kerry highlights role of China in dealing with climate change

The question of what the biggest security risk is to the future of mankind and human civilisation appears to be a controversial one. Recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI) are one area of concern. Oxford Professor Nick Bostrom has argued that the risk posed to human civilisation by AI is greater than the risk posed by climate change.

However, in the words of MP Tobias Ellwood, the chair of the Defence Committee, the risk posed by climate change and the subsequent climate crisis "... is the single biggest security challenge facing humanity."

Ellwood made this claim in a committee session with US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate Change John Kerry, who gave oral evidence as part of the defence and climate change inquiry. The purpose of the inquiry is to investigate how climate change will impact future conflict and the adaptions the British armed forces are making to adjust.

Whilst Kerry did not say that the climate crisis constitutes the biggest security challenge to humanity, he did say that it constitutes "an enormous threat – real and present and future – in terms of the security of our nations and of the planet."

However one ranks the various security risks that could seriously damage or destroy human civilisation, the climate crisis presents a mounting challenge to the international community in the 21st century. That was the message which was conveyed during Kerry's session with the Defence Committee.

Questions were put to Kerry on how climate change will impact the operation of armed forces, and how British and US armed forces can cooperate to respond to the global challenge of climate change.

On the former, Kerry explained how in the US the increased frequency of "flooding, drought, wildfires and extreme weather events," present consequences for military installations. On the latter, Kerry did not go into specifics but highlighted the importance of sharing information and augmenting capacity in cooperation between different armed forces.

He mentioned the role of the Russia-Ukraine war in motivating military cooperation, praising NATO for the way it has come together to counter the threat posed by Russia.

However, whilst the focus of the inquiry is on the role of the armed forces, the session with Kerry also discussed the climate crisis at a broader level of analysis.

Kerry's Optimism

Limiting the rise in global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius is one objective set out in the Paris Agreement, which was agreed upon by world leaders at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) in 2015. Specifically, the Paris Agreement sets the target of limiting the global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius by the end of this century. The 1.5-degree target is something nation-states must strive towards in addition to this.

In his opening remarks to the committee, Kerry stated that not enough is being done to "hold on" to the 1.5-degree target, highlighting the economic costs of delaying action. He explained to the committee that it is more expensive to respond later and therefore better to be proactive.

Crucially, "no country can solve this problem by itself," Kerry argued as he highlighted the upcoming COP28 conference which will be held in Dubai at the end of 2023.

Whilst meeting the target of a 1.5-degree limit is "possible," it constitutes a demanding target, "a very hard lift now" according to Kerry. This might sound pessimistic. However, Kerry seemed optimistic about the potential for the international community to limit the rise in global temperatures. In Kerry's words: "We do have the ability to win this battle."

Temperature rises of 4 or 5 degrees were expected when "people were not doing anything," Kerry explained in his opening remarks. However, with COP conferences and international cooperation taking effect expectations have shifted.

Kerry later explained during the session that with appropriate implementation and societal change, "we could be at 1.7° by 2050." That is if all the promises made at the Sharm el-Sheikh Climate Change Conference (COP27) last year in November 2022 are kept.

One factor to consider is unexpected forms of progress which are not accounted for in models. Kerry gave the example of electric vehicles which have "taken off in ways that nobody predicted." He also mentioned investment in "carbon capture" as one form of technology which can help in the fight against climate change.

Moreover, in the future, unforeseen forms of technological innovation have the potential to change the game and "carry us over the finish line" according to the US Special Envoy. Therefore, humanity's capacity for innovation is a key source of Kerry's optimism.

The challenge of international cooperation

One key message Kerry articulated to the defence committee was that the biggest emitters of emissions are not doing enough to bring about change.

Kerry explained that 48 nation-states in sub-Saharan Africa are responsible for producing just 0.55 per cent of global emissions. He also pointed out that 18 out of 25 of the most impacted places across the world are in Africa.

In contrast, Kerry explained that just 20 nation-states including Britain and the US are responsible for approximately 76 per cent of global emissions. In his words, unless the biggest contributors to global emissions "step up," it is "the rest of the world" that will end up "suffering the consequences."

This underscores the importance of international cooperation that brings about attempts by the biggest economies to reduce emissions. However, the current international environment is just as much conducive to competition and rivalry as it is to cooperation.

For example, the purpose of the Integrated Review Refresh 2023 (IR2023) was to update Britain's foreign policy approach in response to the speed at which the world has become "multipolar, fragmented and contested." The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war is the most obvious example of this.

The importance of China in the fight against climate change

However, in addition to the tensions surrounding the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, one other area of hostility is in the relations between the US, the West, and China.

Kerry highlighted that China is responsible for just under 30 per cent of global emissions. That is considerably larger than the 10 per cent roughly contributed by the US. However, he also highlighted that China deploys "more renewable capacity than any other country in the world."

Crucially, if the international community is to successfully work to address the climate crisis, China needs to be "at the table" according to Kerry. Given the proportion of global emissions China is responsible for, this seems like common sense.

However, US-China relations are far from ideal with tensions increasing in recent years. The current relations between the G7 nations and China are also less than rosy. For example, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has recently declared China to be the world's biggest security challenge.

In light of the challenge posed by climate change, Kerry spoke of hopes of a "thawing in the relationship" between the US and China. He explained that President Biden is working to improve the relationship between the two biggest global powers.

Going forward, a key point of observation for foreign policy observers will be whether the sore points of the US-China relationship make it difficult for the US to challenge and persuade China in its response to the climate crisis.

That was the theme of a question asked by the committee chair Tobias Ellwood. He asked Kerry how much provocative actions, such as visits to Taiwan are "distorting our ability to nurture the type of relationship that we need to persuade China?"

Former U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi has visited Taiwan in the past, causing outrage in Beijing who staged war games in response. Recently, prior to the G7 Summit in Hiroshima, former British Prime Minister Liz Truss visited Taiwan referring to a "cold war" with China.

Kerry argued that climate change must be dealt with independently from other security issues. For example, cyber-war and cyber-theft. He made it clear that this has been the position of the Biden administration.

Indeed, referring to his diplomatic correspondents with Chinese officials, Kerry also indicated that China also sees the importance of separating climate change from other security issues. So in that sense, there may be some common ground, despite tensions on other issues.

A right to exploit fossil fuels?

One interesting question raised in the committee session was from DUP MP Gavin Robinson. He spoke of a "resentment" amongst some of the world's 20 biggest emitters that they will not be able to benefit from fossil fuels economically in the way that older powers like Britain and the US have. That is if the climate is put first.

The biggest emitters according to Kerry include the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). These are relatively newly industrialized nation-states in historical terms that may see their national interest in terms of using fossil fuels in the way that Western countries who industrialised earlier have.

In a world of economic competition where nation-states seek relative hard power gains over one another, that incentive arguably exists.

For example, whilst China has forwarded the development of renewables, throughout 2022 coal power was hot on the energy agenda. According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), in 2022 "106 GW of new coal power projects were permitted." That equates to "two large coal power plants per week."

In response to Robinson's question, Kerry explained that if there is a collective failure to act on climate change, "every country in the world will be equally significantly impacted in existential ways." Moreover, Kerry argued: "If existential choices do not motivate you, I am not sure anything will."