NCDs Could Cost Indonesia $4.47tn
A file photograph of a street vendor selling food for Iftar, at the Benhill food market in Jakarta, in June 2014 Reuters

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) could cost Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy, as much as $4.47tn (£3tn, €4.17tn) from 2012 through 2030, the World Economic Forum (WEF) has warned in a report.

That figure is more than five times Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2012.

NCDs include cancer, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes and mental health conditions.

They have severe economic consequences because they impact various factors including the diversion of household or individual consumption expenditure, savings into healthcare, labour supply and productivity, according to the Economics of Non-Communicable Diseases in Indonesia.

Regional comparisons

Indonesia's NCD burden is more severe than its neighbours' in both absolute and relative terms, WEF said, implying that Indonesia will see a greater reduction in "productive capacity".

Output Loss fro NCDs
Comparison of lost output between Indonesia, India and China, 2012-2030 WEF

By comparison, China's estimated total NCD-related loss is $29.42tn during the 2012-2030 period, or 3.57 times its 2012 GDP.

The corresponding loss for Indonesia over the same time period is 5.1 times its 2012 GDP.

That suggests Indonesia's NCD burden is much larger compared to baseline GDP.

Elsewhere, India's estimated total output loss from NCDs is $4.32tn during the 2012-2030 period.

But Indonesia only has one-fifth of India's population and one-half of its annual GDP.

The report said: "...NCDs mortality directly reduces labor supply by reducing the number of working-age individuals. The reduction in the size of the labor force then translates into a loss in aggregate output..."

Arnaud Bernaert, senior director, Global Health and Healthcare Industries at the WEF said in a statement: "NCDs are imposing a significant burden on Indonesia's economy that will likely increase in the next two decades.

"The positive news is that this trend can be reversed with interventions that promote the overall health status of a population, which we have found have proven return on investment for business, governments and society overall."

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