Russia's Ruble Plummets - Ukraine Hryvnia Bounces

Russia's ruble has been falling to new lows everyday as its conflict with Ukraine intensifies, inviting tighter trade sanctions from the West - while Ukraine's hryvnia has erased some of its losses.

The ruble is down 9% against the dollar since end June and the pair is holding near the record high of 37.51 touched on 1 September.

While Ukraine has been granted more international aid, the hryvnia had lost ground late last year itself, and at the 26 August peak of USD/UAH, the Ukraine currency was down 40% in the year against the dollar.

But interestingly, the hryvnia has managed to reverse some of its losses since 28 August, when the ruble began hitting new lows recently.

The USD/UAH pair fell to 12.55 on Tuesday, resulting a 10% rally in hryvnia from its record low on 27 August.

The Ruble

The USD/RUB pair has been steadily rising since end-June but the move failed to break above the 36.7 resistance barrier after rising to as high as 36.5 in early August.

The pair then held sideways until gaining ground again on 28 August. In the next three sessions, the ruble fell more than 3.4%, taking the pair to a record high of 37.51 before closing the day at 37.33.

On Tuesday, the pair opened at a higher level and continued upward to as high as 37.45.

The Hryvnia

The USD/UAH pair had seen two sharp jumps in the recent history - the first in 2008 and the next, this year.

In the four months since September 2008, the pair rose to the 9.0 mark from 4.5 before constraining to a sideways track around 8.0 for the next four years.

The Ukraine currency was on a free fall since January this year and has so far fallen more than 34%. The pair touched as high as 13.8 on 27 August before slightly reversing the direction.

In the next few sessions, the hryvnia has strengthened nearly 10%.

Ukraine Economic Data

Inflation is accelerating in Ukraine, thanks to the war. It has been at 0.5% at the start of the year and came at 12.6% in July, as per the official data released on 6 August.

The retail sales fell 10% from a year earlier in July, data on 18 August showed. It was worse than the June number of -9.3%.

Another release on the same day showed Ukraine's industrial output fell 12.1% year-over-year in July, after falling 5% in the previous month.

August inflation data will be out on 5 September and retail sales and industrial output on 16th and 17th respectively.

Russian Data

As per the official data on 22 August, leading economic index for Russia has fallen to -2.0 for July from -1.0 in June, indicating the growth challenges for the country.

Russian trade surplus had narrowed 24% to $13.97bn in June from $18.28bn in May as exports decreased 8% while imports grew 3%.

The Russian GDP growth slowed to 0.8% on year-on-year basis in the first three months of 2014 from 0.9% in the previous quarter, official data showed last month.

The inflation data on 4 September and trade data on 10th are the most important numbers from Russia ahead of the rate decision by the Central Bank of Russia.

In its last meeting, the CBR had unexpectedly hiked the main lending rate to 8% citing rising inflationary pressures in the country. Therefore, any upside surprise in the August inflation number will be taken seriously by the markets.