Turkey's failed coup will create an immense security vacuum in a destabilised country

On the night of Friday 15 July a group of military officers acting outside of the military chain of command launched a coup attempt in Turkey. They seized Istanbul airport, symbolically closed the Bosporus Bridge to traffic and declared the curfew. However, within just a couple of hours the coup start to unravel.

It soon became clear that those behind the coup attempt failed to follow the textbook steps needed to launch a successful coup.

That is, first, to capture or neutralise the person against whom the coup is launched, in this case president Recep Tayyip Erdogan. And secondly close or control all communication channels.

On the first one they failed, and the second they could not manage as we are living in an age of the internet.

Soon after the coup was launched Erdogan was interviewed via FaceTime by one of the mainstream TV channels on which he called on his supporters to take the streets and resist the coup.

Thus prompted Erdogan's supporters began to take the streets in thousands. All political parties together with the entire media outlets from left to the right of the political spectrum declared their support for the elected government. The coup attempt failed by the early hours of Saturday 16 July.

As to the reasons behind this coup attempt, there are various scenarios being talked about. The government side of the story is that the coup plotters were supporters of the Fettullah Gulen, a cleric living in self-imposed exile in America. It is suggested that this was their last ditch attempt to overthrow the government, something they have been trying since they orchestrated the corruption scandals of December 2012 against the then prime minister Erdogan.

Even before this coup attempt Erdogan was accusing those opposing his rule as plotters that conspiring to overthrow him.

There is an element of truth here. It is a well-known fact that Gulen's supporters have infiltrated almost all critical state institutions from the police and army to the judiciary in large numbers. This infiltration has mainly taken place during the ruling party AKP's time in government when Erdogan and Gulen were allies against secular state and military elite.

However, this partnership ended when in December 2012 there was a major corruption scandal involving Erdogan. It is now widely accepted that Gulen's supporters in judiciary and police were behind the corruption scandal. Since then Erdogan purged so-called Gulen supporters from the police and the judiciary.

Up until this coup attempt, the cleric's supporters in the army were left untouched. However, it become clear that Erdogan, supported by secular sections of the army, was making plans to remove the cleric's supporters from the army. It is now alleged that when Gulen's supporters realised their time was up, they masterminded this coup attempt.

But surely they were not alone? It seems that they have acted with a section of hard-core secularist army officers, but apparently not with enough of them to be successful.

There is also a widespread belief that this was actually a staged coup by Erdogan so as to eliminate whatever was left of the opposition in order to attain his final goal of introducing a presidential system in Turkey so he becomes the all-powerful executive president.

There are many factors that actually gives weight to this claim; from the clumsiness of the plotters, to the speed by which the latest round of the purge began.

So what will be the implications of this event for the Turkish political system and its aspirations? The signs are not promising at all. As feared, Erdogan will use this as an excuse to eliminate all those opposing his rule. As of today 7,543 members of army have been arrested and 7,899 police have been suspended.

The judiciary too has taken its fair share of a hit from this latest purge as 2,755 of its members have been suspended, including one member of the constitutional court. Listening to Erdogan and members of his government, one can get the sense that they will repeat this process in almost every critical state institution.

The security vacuum this will create will undoubtedly be immense in an already destabilised country where the terror threat from Islamic State (IS) is real and the fight with the Kurdish insurgents is ongoing.

The events of last few days do not bode well for the future of opposition in Turkey. Even before this coup attempt, Erdogan was accusing those opposing his rule as plotters conspiring to overthrow him. With this coup attempt, now he has the real evidence to show for it. The streets will now be monopolised by his supporters too, after all they have defeated the feared Turkish army on the streets.

The fear is that this tried and tested newfound force of "people power" could also be used against democratic opposition too. A Gezi-type protest, where thousands of leftist liberal youth rose against Erdogan's policies in spring of 2012, could well be a thing of the past.

A Gezi type protest, where thousands of leftist liberal youth rose against Erdogan's policies in spring of 2012, could well be thing of the past.

The implications of this event are not limited to domestic politics only. It will also have ramifications internationally. Gulen, the alleged mastermind behind coup attempt, resides in America. Erdogan has already demanded that America should extradite him. John Kerry said on Monday (18 July) that they have not received a formal extradition request yet and if they do, they will only consider it if it is based on real evidence rather than some allegations. It is likely this will put further pressure on already strained relations between the US and Turkey.

On the other hand, Kerry warned that, as a Nato member, Turkey is expected to respect the rule of law and democratic principles in any post-coup crackdown.

Since the coup attempt, Erdogan supporters have been calling for the reintroduction of the death penalty for the plotters. Erdogan and the prime minister have given indications that they are open to the idea and that it could be considered.

Although unlikely, if they are to introduce capital punishment, this will certainly end Turkey's bid to join the EU.

The blowbacks from this failed coup will be felt in Turkey for a long time to come. The political landscape will change − and in all likelihood, for the worse.