UK Government Says It Is Not Making Contingencies For 'Yes' Vote in Scotland - Don't Believe It

The polls have narrowed and the Scottish nationalists are increasingly optimistic they will pull off a historic, constitutional revolution and finally end the Union in just a couple of weeks' time.

So the government is frantically drawing up plans for what to do if the unthinkable happens. Except, if you believe what it says, it is not actually doing this.

It sounds ludicrously unlikely and certainly complacent. But the prime minister's spokesman has told journalists: "There are no contingency plans.

"There is no change in the government's approach. There is real confidence in the argument that the government and others are making. Of course, there is no complacency."

So we are expected to believe that if Alex Salmond pulls it off on 18 September and the prime minister is then asked: "What happens now?" the answer will be: "I have no idea."

Rubbish, nonsense, phooey and so on.

Of course the government knows and it would be a dereliction of duty verging on criminal neglect if ministers had not asked civil servants in the Scottish Office to draw up briefing papers on the consequences of a "yes" vote and present options.

In fact civil servants, being the highly professional long-termists they are, probably would not need to have been asked. They would naturally have gone into contingency mode months or even years ago.

We know it, the SNP knows it and they all know we all know it.

But this is all part of the political game. The moment any minister or ministerial source admits there are detailed plans in the event Scotland breaks away the statement will be seized on as an admission of defeat by the "no" camp.

And these are not small questions. What happens to the Scottish MPs elected next year? There are currently 59 in the Commons but they and their successors might only have 10 months before they are forced to leave as full independence kicks in.

But will they continue to help pass laws that will never apply to Scotland?

Or will there be a demand that the 2015 election excludes all Scottish constituencies. Unthinkable? Who knows?

Either way, the Commons would ultimately lose some of its most senior figures, including Labour's former prime minister Gordon Brown, "no" campaign leader Alistair Darling and shadow foreign secretary Douglas Alexander, while the Lib Dems would see the removal of Scottish secretary Alistair Carmichael and ex-leader Charles Kennedy would also be out. The Tories would lose their single Scottish MP David Mundell.

And what about the House of Lords, where there are some 60 unelected peers from Scotland but who do not have constituencies? Again, the answer is "who knows?"

There are also any number of unanswered questions about whether the next government must exclude Scottish MPs, what happens to the Scottish Secretary and Westminster committees – the list of ways Westminster might be affected is long.

And the answer is the government will worry about it when it happens. Really?