Will '2019 Balakot Airstrike' Repeat?: India Expected To Retaliate Following Kashmir Attack

Tensions have soared between India and Pakistan following the killings of 26 tourists in a deadly terror attack in Kashmir as public pressure has intensified on Prime Minister Narendra Modi to retaliate against the perpetrators, whom New Delhi is accusing of planning the dastardly act in neighbouring country.

Though India has immediately announced slew of tough measures against Pakistan but political and military analysts are expecting forceful retaliation more severe than what was witnessed during '2019 Balakot Airstrike.'

Deadly Terror Attack On Indian Tourists In Kashmir

After the terrible attack near Pahalgam in the disputed region, Indian foreign secretary Vikram Misri pointed fingers at Pakistani leaders, claiming they supported 'cross-border terrorism,' While Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised to 'identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backers.'

Indian law enforcement has stated that a minimum of two among the four individuals thought to be responsible for the assault are citizens of Pakistan. However, Islamabad has refuted any suggestion of involvement in the gunfire.

After India's decision, Pakistan retaliated by immediately halting all visas granted to Indian citizens under a special arrangement and by closing its skies to all Indian aircraft. Pakistan also described India's choice to put a hold on a water agreement that had been in place for decades as a possible 'act of war.'

Since the unfortunate event, the strain has been growing between the two long-standing adversaries, sparking worries that hostilities might erupt between the two countries possessing nuclear weapons.

India Orders Pakistan Nationals To Leave

'In continuation of the decisions made by the Cabinet Committee on Security in the wake of the Pahalgam terror attack, the Government of India has decided to suspend visa services to Pakistani nationals with immediate effect,' India's Ministry of External Affairs said in a statement.

'All existing valid visas issued by India to Pakistani nationals stand revoked with effect from 27 April 2025. Medical visas issued to Pakistani nationals will be valid only till 29 April 2025. All Pakistani nationals currently in India must leave India before the expiry of visas, as now amended,' the statement added.

'Indian nationals are strongly advised to avoid travelling to Pakistan. Those Indian nationals currently in Pakistan are also advised to return to India at the earliest.' The assault on Tuesday took place in Kashmir, a territory over which both nations have control of certain areas but assert complete ownership.

Since 1989, insurgents have been fighting for either independence or to join Pakistan. New Delhi has frequently accused Islamabad of supporting armed individuals in Kashmir, a claim Pakistan refutes.

Gunfire At A Tourist Hotspot

On Tuesday, armed men emerged from the woods at a well-known tourist location of Pahalgam and began shooting at the groups of visitors, resulting in the deaths of 25 Indian citizens and one resident of Nepal.

In the aftermath, India's air travel authority noted an exceptional surge in requests from travellers and sightseers urgently attempting to return home.

Prime Minister Modi reacted strongly to the incident—which occurred during US Vice President JD Vance's visit—promising a 'punishment bigger than they can imagine' for the perpetrators. Ishaq Dar, Pakistan's foreign minister and deputy prime minister, labeled India's reaction as 'immature and hasty.'

He added: 'India has not given any evidence. They have not shown any maturity in their response. This is not a serious approach. They started creating hype immediately after the incident.'

Echoes Of The Past: A Potential Balakot-Style Response?

Analysts have indicated India approach might be severe than its response was in 2019 when New Delhi conducted coordinated airstrikes targeting Balakot, a town within Pakistan. This raises the question of whether history will repeat itself in the current crisis.

Back in 2019, India asserted that its air force conducted strikes on militant locations within Pakistani territory, a significant intensification of the strained relations between the two nations. The government stated that these operations focused on a training facility belonging to the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) organisation in Balakot, situated in Pakistan's northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

New Delhi has consistently held Islamabad responsible for enabling militant organisations to function within its borders. Furthermore, India claims that Pakistani security agencies played a role in the suicide bombing on 14 February 2019, an attack claimed by JeM that resulted in the deaths of 40 Indian soldiers.

As detailed by the Counter Terrorism Guide, on 14 February 2019, a suicide bomber detonated a vehicle laden with explosives into an Indian paramilitary convoy. This devastating act in Pulwama, Kashmir, resulted in the deaths of at least 40 personnel, marking it as one of the most significant attacks in the region.

Pakistan's Rebuttal

Conversely, Pakistan has refuted any connection to the incident and maintains that it does not provide a safe haven for militants. Locals then told BBC Urdu that they were awakened by powerful detonations. Pakistan strongly criticised the airstrike and declared it would issue a response. Those air operations marked the first instance of crossing the Line of Control—the unofficial boundary separating Indian-administered Kashmir from Pakistan-administered Kashmir—since the conflict between the two nations in 1971.

India's Account: Targeting Militants In Balakot

During a press briefing, Indian Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale stated that the airstrikes resulted in the deaths of a 'large number' of militants, including their leaders, while ensuring no harm to civilians.

'Credible intel [intelligence] was received that JeM was planning more suicide attacks in India. In the face of imminent danger, a pre-emptive strike became absolutely necessary,' he said.

Later that month, while addressing a political gathering in Rajasthan, Modi without explicitly referencing the airstrikes, conveyed to the enthusiastic audience: 'I understand your enthusiasm and your energy. Today is a day we bow before our heroes.'

Potential Paths Of Retaliation

In 2021, both nations reaffirmed an earlier ceasefire agreement along their shared border, which has mostly remained in effect despite insurgent attacks on Indian military personnel. The question now looms: will India's response to the recent Kashmir assault mirror the Balakot incident? It will certainly be a development worth observing closely.

'Modi will have a very strong, if not irresistible, political compulsion to retaliate with force,' said Arzan Tarapore, a research scholar from Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation, told CNN.

'We don't know what that would look like, and it's somewhat meaningless to speculate at this point, but I think the 2019 Balakot crisis provides some cues on what to watch for in India's response,' stated Tarapore.

He was referencing New Delhi's reaction to a militant assault on Indian soldiers that resulted in the deaths of at least 40 paramilitary personnel in Indian-administered Kashmir.

Dismissing India's Response As 'Immature'

Senator Sherry Rehman, Pakistan's former Federal Minister for Climate Change and Environment, told MailOnline: 'With zero evidence, India has laid the entire blame on Pakistan and used this tragedy as an excuse to dismantle all diplomatic and other ties like the Indus Waters Treaty that have stood the test of time and several wars.

'It is clear that their playbook is fundamentally focused on a rapid escalation of hostilities, irrespective of the obvious dangers in a nuclear neighbourhood.'

Ali Rehman Malik, chairman of the Institute of Research and Reforms (IRR) International, added: 'There is simply no justification for threatening a nation's access to water. Water is not a political bargaining chip; it is the foundation of life. To withhold it is to deliberately endanger civilians, slowly, but surely.

'Nowhere is this more urgent than in Pakistan, where the Indus River sustains nearly 90 per cent of the country's agricultural production and provides drinking water to over 200 million people. The Indus is not just a river, it is the lifeline of an entire nation.'