2015 set to be hottest year with record carbon levels and strengthening El Nino: WMO

The World Meteorological Organization has predicted that 2015 is likely to become the hottest year on record. In its five-year analysis of global weather, the organisation said 2015 saw record levels of carbon emission plus some extreme weather events.

"Levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached new highs and in the Northern hemisphere spring 2015 the three-month global average concentration of CO2 crossed the 400 parts per million barrier for the first time," WMO secretary general Michel Jarraud said in a statement.

The analysis shows that between January and October, the global average surface temperature for 2015 was around 0.73C, above the 1961-1990 average of 14C and approximately 1C above the pre-industrial 1880-1899 period.

"This temperature tendency indicates that 2015 will very likely be the warmest year on record. The global average sea-surface temperature, which set a record last year, is likely to equal or surpass that record in 2015."

El Nino impact

The WMO analysis suggests that a combination of a strong El Nino and human-induced global warming are to be blamed for the situation. El Nino, which is characterised by unusually warm temperature of the sea surface in the Pacific Ocean that has an impact on global weather patterns, was still gaining strength, Jarraud said.

"This [El Nino] is influencing weather patterns in many parts of the world. The overall warming impact of this El Nino is expected to continue into 2016. This is all bad news for the planet." The report comes ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris starting on 30 November.

According to WMO, El Nino fuelled an "exceptionally warm" October this year. Below average rainfall in large areas of Central America and the Caribbean was recorded, while Brazil witnessed drought in the Amazon due to scanty rainfall during the dry season. India's monsoon rainfall was 86% of normal, and in Indonesia, low rainfall has likely contributed to increased incidence of wildfires.

On the contrary, disturbed weather pattern due to El Nino saw Peru and Argentina affected by heavy rain and flooding, the report said.

The analysis highlights the global average temperatures over land areas from January to October and suggests that 2015 is also set to be one of the warmest years on record over land.