UK in 2030: Brexit worsens shrinking economy, population boom and overburdened infrastructure

Brexit will pose various challenges for the UK in the 2020s such as economic uncertainty, a volatile jobs market, stagnating incomes for the poor and low public finances, according to an Institute of Public Policy Research (IPPR) report.

The report titled Britain in the 2020s, published on Thursday (29 December) by the London-based think tank, analyses factors shaping the UK up to 2030. Authored by Mathew Lawrence, research fellow at IPRR, the report highlights five major disruptive forces in the 2020s and 10 major challenges the UK will face by 2030.

One of the key highlights of the report is that the country is set to age sharply and become increasingly diverse. The age group of people above 65 would increase by 33% by 2030, while the working-age population will rise by just 3%.

The UK population, the report says, will grow the fastest when compared to any other major European country. It is expected to become the largest country in Europe by population in the mid-2040s, putting more pressure on schools, hospitals and infrastructure.

The report predicts a social care crisis with the gap in adult social care funding to be £13bn ($15.91bn) or 62% of the expected budget in 2030/31.

The economy is forecast to be £55bn smaller by 2030 than if it had remained an EU member. Considering this gloomy scenario, where trade costs increase signi­ficantly, UK households would be £1,700 worse off per year by 2030, the report adds.

The UK is expected to see radical changes in four key areas, namely, automation and manufacturing, information technology, resource technology and health technology. This will "make the dreams of science a­ction increasingly the reality of ordinary life by 2030".

While this would act as a boon to certain sectors, it would also have negative effects such as job losses. It forecasts two million jobs in retail and 600,000 in manufacturing to disappear by 2030.

The report also dwells on climate change, income inequalities, low-growth living standards and the shift of economic power to the eastern part of the world.

Lawrence said in a statement: "By 2030, the effects of Brexit combined with a wave of economic, social and technological change will reshape the UK, in often quite radical ways.

"In the face of this, a politics of nostalgia, institutional conservatism and a rear guard defence of the institutions of 20th century social democracy will be inadequate. For progressives, such a strategy will not be robust enough to mitigate against growing insecurity, ambitious enough to reform Britain's economic model, nor sufficiently innovative to deliver deeper social and political transformation. They would be left defending sand castles against the tide of history.

"Britain's progressives should be ambitious, seeking to shape the direction of technological and social change. We must build a 'high energy' democracy that accelerates meaningful democratic experimentation at a national, city and local level, and also in the marketplace by increasing everyone's say over corporate governance, ownership and power."