Greek referendum: 48 hours to keep country in the Eurozone
Greece has just two days to thrash out a new bailout deal with its creditors or it risks crashing out of the Eurozone after voting No in the 5 July referendum, experts have said.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President François Hollande have called a special Eurozone summit for Tuesday 7 July to discuss the fallout and a future course of direction.
However, with Greece's banking system on the verge of collapse, observers are warning that Eurozone leaders and Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras have just 48 hours to keep the country within the single currency.
"The imminent collapse of the banking system means that there's probably 48 hours at most to keep Greece within the Eurozone. The choice facing the creditors is fairly simple: they can either retain their demands for a deal that does not involve debt relief [which won't be accepted] or cede to the will of the Greek people and renege on their 'red line'," said Simon Smith, chief economist at FxPro.
Although neither side has shown a willingness to back down during several months of talks, the situation on the ground in Greece could force a decision.
A week long bank holiday and capital controls have already seen long queues outside cash machines and reports of food shortages. Greek finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis had said that banks will reopen on 7 July, but refused to confirm this on the day of the vote. Greeks are limited to withdrawing €60 per day from their bank accounts, but economists believe that this could be lowered further in the coming days.
Diego Iscaro, senior economist at IHS Global Insight, said: "We estimate it is very likely banks will not reopen on July 7 as currently expected. Moreover, the limit on bank withdrawals, currently at €60, may also need to be reduced."
The situation could deteriorate further if Greek banks are starved of liquidity from the European Central Bank.
In a research note issued on the night of the referendum, analysts at Barclays said that the consequences of the ECB shutting off Emergency Liquidity Assistance would see Greece crash out of the euro.
"The lack of financing would trigger a collapse of the Greek economy. This situation could not last more than a few days, beyond which the Greek government would have to decide to take back the control over the central bank of Greece and force it to provide liquidity support to Greek banks, therefore printing de facto another currency. This would clearly be a violation of the Treaty and would certainly put Greece outside the monetary union."
For his part, Tsipras has signalled that he will meet with his cabinet tomorrow as he attempts to return to the negotiating table with a strong mandate from the Greek people.
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