Hungarian forint jumps to 15-month high vs euro on strong data

The Hungarian currency rallied to a 15-month high vs the euro on Wednesday as inflation rate rose to a two-year high and industrial output and trade data surprised on the higher side.

EUR/HUF fell 0.6% down on the day to 296.59, its lowest since January last year. The cross has ended all the months this year lower after hitting a record high of 327.13 in January.

The forint has strengthened more than 5% against the euro in the first three months of this year and has added 1.3% so far this month.

Forint's gain against the euro came despite the shared currency's broad gains helped by the dovish Fed remarks overnight.

The consumer price inflation in Hungary increased to 0.6% on a monthly basis in March, its highest since early 2013, from the previous month's 0.5% rate. The year-on-year deflation rate eased to 0.6% from 1.0%.

Meanwhile, the February trade balance of the eastern European country widened to 289bn forint from 225bn forint in January. In addition, industrial production rose 5.8% from a year earlier in February from 5.3% in January.

USD/HUF fell to 272.85 from the previous close of 275.95, translating to a 1.1% rally in the Hungarian currency. The pair is now at striking distance from the 270.0 support which it had nearly hit twice in the recent weeks.

A break of the 26 March low of 270.43 will take the pair down to a one-month low, technically. The break of that level will open doors to 266.13, below which the forint will be at its strongest since early January.

The pair had traded at a record high of 292.26 in March before ending the month at 280.0. At the lowest so far this month, the Hungarian currency has rallied 3.7% off the March close and 8% off the peak of last month.

The USD index has eased on Wednesday, snapping a two-day gaining streak, amid dovish comments by a senior US Fed official. The Minneapolis Fed president Narayana Kocherlakota said on Tuesday that the Fed should not hike rates until late 2016.

All eyes are now on the FOMC minutes due later in the day which will detail the deliberations of the 18 March policy review by the US central bank.