Norwegian krone off highs amid rate cut speculation, Norges Bank May meeting in focus

The Norwegian krone that rallied to new highs across the board over the past few days has begun moving down as the euro found support. The market is now waiting for the early May policy review by Norges Bank.

The EUR/NOK rallied to 8.3796 off an intra-day low of 8.3186, a six-month low. The GBP/NOK rebounded to 11.6876 from the day's low of 11.5305, a two-month low.

Against the dollar, the krone had risen to a three-week high of 7.7570 earlier in the Asian session, before reversing to 7.8805. The NOK/JPY cross fetched a five-week high of 15.332 before easing to 15.144. Against the Swedish krona, the NOK has fallen off a two-month high of 1.1182 to 1.1054.

The central bank left the rate steady at the March review but a section of the market is expecting it to be lowered to 1% at the May meeting.

The data after the March review has not been overly hawkish or dovish for that matter, so the odds are high for a hold decision next month, according to experts.

Analysts at Dankse Bank say Norway is likely to cut only in the June meeting, not in May.

"While interest rate markets currently price in an implied probability of around 20% of two rate cuts in the second quarter, we reckon Norges Bank will cut only once (namely June)," said Kristoffer Lomholt, analyst at the bank, as per an FXStreet report.

The Norwegian consumer price inflation rose to 2% from a year earlier in March from 1.9% in the previous month while industrial output rebounded to 1.9% growth after falling 0.4% year-on-year in February.

Data also revealed that Norway's trade surplus slightly narrowed to 20.7bn krone from 21.0bn krone.

Norway is scheduled to review its monetary policy on 7 May and many analysts still expect an additional rate cut by the Norges Bank which had lowered the key policy rate to 1.25% in December.

Analysts are also of the view that rebounding oil prices will help support the Norwegian currency as the country is a major petroleum exporter in the region.