Global Crude Oil Prices Held Down By Growth But OPEC Risks Loom Says IEA

Global crude oil prices are unlikely to rise in the second half of the year, according to the International Energy Agency's latest report, as economies around the world slow and demand wanes.

The IEA trimmed its estimate for daily oil demand growth to around 800,000 barrels, taking total consumption to around 89.5m barrels per day on average.

However, the Paris-based group warned that a price surge was possible if Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members were to agree to adhere to production quotas agreed at last month's gathering in Vienna.

OPEC, which is responsible for around 40 percent of global production, pumps around 31.6m barrels per day, according to Secretary General Abdalla El-Badri. Strict adherence to the agreed 30m barrel per day target could "risk a potentially damaging price surge" in crude oil prices.

OPEC said Wednesday it expects its members will need to produce around 29.6m barrels per day next year, or around 400,000 less than the quotas agreed last month for the remainder of 2012.

The IEA estimates global OPEC supplies fell in June for the first time in 8 months to around 31.8m barrels, led by production dips in Iran and Angola.

Iran, which is dealing with an joint European Union and US-led boycott of its crude supplies, pumped around 3.2m barrels per day last month, the IEA estimated.

Brent crude futures have fallen more than 23 percent this year as economic growth around the world has stalled in the wake of the European sovereign debt crisis. OPEC said Wednesday it expects global economic growth to slow to 3.2 percent next year from a 3.3 percent estimate this year.

Next year, the IEA expects daily global demand to rise by around 900,000 barrels to 90.9m barrels per day as demand from emerging markets overtakes that of developed economies for the first time in history. The estimate echoes a similar assumption from OPEC, although the cartel only sees an 800,000 barrel boost to daily oil consumption next year.

The IEA's forecast for non-OPEC production growth next year, mostly from nations such as Canada, Russia and Brazil, is broadly in-line with the cartel's estimate of 700,000 barrels per day, which translates to around 53.9m barrels per day in total.