Scottish Independence Latest Poll: 'No' Vote Will Win

Scottish people are likely to vote against breaking away from the rest of the UK in the referendum in September, according to a 'poll of polls' by newspaper The Independent.

The results show that Scots will vote against independence by 57%, while the 'Yes' vote will come in at 43%.

The Independent said the results are based on the latest six opinion polls from YouGov, Ipsos MORI, Survation, ICM, TNS BMRB, and Panelbase, and excludes "don't knows".

"The Yes campaign seems to have stalled while still significantly short of its destination," said John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, who made the calculations.

"It looks as though we may not ascertain the answer until the real votes are counted on 18 September. But if the former group of pollsters are correct, one more heave might just produce an unexpected Yes victory.

"If, on the other hand, the latter pollsters are correct, success would seem to be beyond [Scottish National Party's leader] Alex Salmond's grasp, irrespective of how well he performs on [5 August]."

Next week Scotland's First Minister Salmond will go head-to-head against the leader of the Better Together campaign Alistair Darling, in a TV debate.

"Unfortunately for Salmond at the moment pessimists still outnumber optimists by some 45% to 35%," said Curtis to The Independent.

"Unless Salmond can begin to turn those numbers around, it looks as though Scotland will opt to stay in the Union, albeit perhaps by a margin that some unionists may find rather less than comfortable."

Scots will vote in an independence referendum on 18 September this year and will be asked the straight "yes/no" question: "Should Scotland be an independent country?"

The referendum period started on 30 May.