Sterling levels to watch ahead of UK general election 2015

The UK pound is under pressure with data coming less supportive, while uncertainty about the outcome of the general election next month is adding to the bearishness.

The data calendar this week has UK events like Bank of England minutes and March retail sales numbers scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday respectively but the major deciding factor will be the clarity of the political scene of the country.

Technically, the GBP/USD pair has come off the five-year low of 1.4565 touched earlier this month, but this week's near term story is the move off a one-month high of 1.5055 touched last week.

On the downside, two near term levels to look at are 1.4800 and 1.4700 ahead of a retest of the multi-year low of 13 April. On the higher side, 1.5000 and 1.5070 may be watched before the 1.5170-1.5200 band.

A move above the 1.5000 mark will take the pair through the 50-day simple moving average, which has been kept as a steady resistance barrier since July last year except for a brief stay above the line for about four weeks starting mid-February this year.

On the monthly picture, a break of the 13 April low will open doors to 1.4344 and then 1.4228, the May 2010 low, a break of which will take the pair to its lowest since March 2009.

The big picture resistance level that comes first is 1.6000 where the 14-month SMA has broken below the 50-month SMA, triggering a bearish signal. A successful break of the same is unlikely to see any stops until 1.7000 though 1.6300 may offer some resistance.