What are the odds on Brexit not happening?

Over 12 months have passed since Britain voted to leave the European Union but the Brexit process has so far delivered more questions than answers. Warnings from economists and industry bodies have been tempered by better than expected economic data, while pledges to secure a swift deal have been undermined by political confusion.

Earlier this week, a spokesman for Number 10 indicated freedom of movement will end in 2019, contradicting Philip Hammond's claims that Britain might seek a transitional agreement to avoid a "cliff edge" scenario.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday (1 August), senior civil servants accused Theresa May of wasting an entire year preparing for Brexit due to Conservative infighting and a "failure of diplomacy".

"It has been a completely wasted year while the Tories negotiated with themselves," crossbench peer and former head of the Foreign Office Lord John Kerr told the Financial Times.

"There has been a sort of policy paralysis where Number 10 imposed a control freak freeze."

The confusion is such that while Brexit talks are scheduled to end in March 2019 with Britain leaving the EU, a number of bookmakers now believe the deal to take the UK out of the bloc might not be finalised in time.

According to Betfair, the odds of Britain leaving in the EU after 29 March 2019 stand at 6/4, meaning there is a 40% chance of it happening, while Britain is odds on to remain in the bloc past the deadline date.

Odds on the latter are as short as 1/2, meaning there's a 66.7% chance of it happening.

"Back in April, it was odds-on that the UK would leave the EU by the 29 of March 2019, however the odds started to change in June following the General Election and it is now odds-on that it will not happen by that date," Betfair spokesperson Katie Baylis told IBTimes UK.

Betfair is not the only firm to have recorded a sharp shift in betting patterns across the Brexit markets. Betting exchange Smarkets, for example, indicated the probability of Britain leaving the union by 2019 stood at 37%, compared with 63% chance of the UK leaving afterward.

The group's press officer, Pascal Lemesre said: "On our 'will the UK leave the EU by the end of its two-year Article 50 window' market, the prices flipped shortly after the General Election result.

"Initially, traders on our exchange priced Yes around the 65% mark but now No is favourite at 63%."

Among other bookies, however, Britain remains odds to leave the EU by the end of the two-year negotiation period. William Hill offer odds on 4/6 on Britain exiting the bloc in 2019, meaning a probability of 60%.

Odds on Theresa May steering the UK out of the bloc in 2020 stand at 5/4 - 44.4% probability - while an early exit in 2018 is seen as much more unlikely, with the FTSE 100-listed bookmaker offering odds as long as 12/1, representing a 7.7% chance.

To put the figure into context, odds on Britain holding a second EU referendum are much shorter. Ladbrokes currently offer 4/1 odds, or a 20% chance, on the government calling a second vote in 2019, while odds on a new Brexit vote next year stand at 7/1 with Paddy Power.

Amid all the Brexit-related uncertainty, however, one thing seems sure: the topic is failing to generate the same enthusiasm among punters generated by June's General Election.

"British punters have seemingly grown a little bored of Brexit, and instead it's much more appealing to place wagers on the circus that is US politics at the moment," said Jessica Bridge, head of PR for Sports and News at Ladbrokes.