SEK, RUB and BRL: Currencies to watch for likely changes in central bank policy this week

As many as ten central banks are scheduled for rate decisions this week but the three in focus for their likelihood of a cut or an increase in the main policy rate are the apex banks of Sweden, Russia and Brazil.

The FOMC decision on 29 April will of course be the most important event of the week but decisions by those minor banks could impact their currencies, hence the importance for the forex market.

The Brazilian real has rallied more than 12% so far this month moving off a record low of last month and the Russian rouble has been hovering near a five-month high. The Swedish krona on the other hand, is still very close to the six-year low it hit earlier this month.

Both the Swedish and Russian banks are likely to see a reduction in the benchmark rates while their Brazilian counterpart is expected to raise the rate.

Riksbank on 18 March cut its key repo rate by 0.15 percentage point to -0.25% and expanded its programme of asset purchases to 30bn krona. Sweden's inflation rate has slightly inched up in recent months and recorded 0.2% in March, matching the June 2014 number.

The Swedish krona had plunged to a six-year low of 8.8871 on 13 April but has traded slightly off the lows in the past week. Any further title to the dovish side by the central bank could take the Swedish unit to new multi-year lows this week.

Citing higher inflation, the central bank of Brazil raised the selic rate to a six-year high of 12.75% on 4 March. At Thursday's (30 April) review, expectations are for a further increase in the rate to 13% as inflation has continued upward and reached a 12-year high of 8.13% in March.

The Brazilian real is headed for its first monthly gain snapping a seven-month streak of losses that took it to a record low of 3.3155/dollar in March. So far in April, the real has rallied 12.3% and ended last week at a seven-week low of 2.9528.

At the 13 March meeting, the Russian central bank lowered its benchmark one-week repo rate by 100 bps to 14%, saying the balance of risks is still skewed towards a more significant cooling of the economy.

The bank had raised the rate by 650 basis points in December last year to 17% and has started cutting by smaller parts since January. Inflationary pressures are still in the upward direction in Russia but growth concerns should weigh in the policy meeting on Thursday as the annual GDP rate for the past two quarters was 0%.

The Russian rouble is being moved by a host of factors these days including crude oil prices and geopolitical events in addition to the general dollar performance. It has been on an upward path for the past seven weeks and closed last week at 50.39, only slightly off the five-month high of 48.85 touched on 16 April.

The central banks of Japan, New Zealand, Mexico, Israel, Thailand, Bulgaria and Angola will also set rates this week while the heads of the Australian and Canadian apex banks are scheduled to speak, and therefore the respective currencies will also be watched in the coming days.